To Rahul, With Rancor (Bura Na Mano Holi Hai)

Dear Rahul G,

Today is Holi. It is a festival of colors celebrated in India. India is a country, of which Uttar Pradesh is a state. Now, I am sure, this letter has caught your attention. UP is to you what red color is to a bull. Color again reminds me of Holi. And as the tradition goes, you must not mind the mud thrown at you on the occasion of this wonderful festival.

So, we can clearly see that you are red-faced. No, not because of the festival of colors but due to that hammering in the festival of democracy. I had warned you beforehand. Parachuting to a Dalit's house for picnic or cooking up stories at Bhatta Parsaul wont help your cause. (Read: To Rahul, With Rancor) I had also urged you to come out clean on your vision and ambition. What do you promise and offer to this country? What do you stand for? And, who are you at first place? But alas, you did not pay heed. (Read: To Rahul, With Rancor-2) You pay heed to nobody. You ignore media. Sorry, this time people ignored you. I wrote you two long letters! You know what it takes to blog? You know what it takes to blog about you? What Rahul G? I am sure even Parle-G would have paid heed after so much of effort. Ok, bad one. But again, it's Holi. I warned you.

I want to pay you some respect. Please don't mind. Respect for coming out from your shell, and owning up the responsibility for UP fiasco. And now, I take back that respect. For not turning up at your party's meet to discuss what went wrong. I know Congress is run from your mother's kitchen and you discuss your strategies with her at the dinner table, but still this is not done. This shows that you are an arrogant and a weak man. You can not look into adversity's eyes. You are far from ground realities. Your chopper is no match for Akhilesh's cycle. And you are not sympathetic and compassionate towards your own party members.

All throughout your campaign in UP, you faked aggression. You tore papers. People tore your party apart. You shouted against almost every political leader. The people shut you up. By now, you must have known that you are good at attracting crowd. You are a handsome Gandhi. People are bound to queue up to see you. But they will vote only for people they trust. And you failed to win people's trust.

To be honest, I also sympathize with you. You worked really hard to make a difference for your party. But you went horribly wrong in your calculations. You dreamed of forming government while your last tally was just 22. Your promises were lofty, far away and way high from the ground. Being a politician, how could you not read the writing on the wall? How could not you assess the ground realities, your party's actual prospects? Why did you continue to be ill-advised by a bunch of loud-mouth, moth-faced politicians? And the biggest sin of them all, how could you trust and entrust a joker like Digvijay Singh with so many responsibilities?

I pity you for being painted red this Holi. Hence, I made sure that I use coal black font color for writing this letter. I still wish you good luck for future. And I wish you and your family and your party a very happy Holi. Times change. Your day under the orange sun will come. Just make sure that you clean your face and heart properly after playing Holi.


With Rancor,

A Non-Congressman

The Most Unscientific Exit Poll Ever

As soon as the clock struck five on Saturday evening, all leading channels of the country embarked on a self-serving exercise of 'predicting' which party would come out victor in the assembly elections across 5 Indian states. Obviously, Uttar Pradesh got the biggest share of the pie while tiny Manipur was predictably ignored and isolated. I don't know what study and research goes behind these exercises but these exit polls have proved incorrect on most of the occasions, except when the outcomes were very much obvious. How can we forget the surprising results of 2004 general elections, when Congress romped home to majority, putting all pollsters and experts to shame. Exit polls have been proved wrong in States like Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, where Mayawati and Jayalalitha secured full majority, despite not being touted to do so. So, I would not be surprised, and in fact would be very delighted, if the electorates triumph over the exit polls yet again.

I have my reasons to not believe these exit polls-

• No channel/ media house comes out with the methodologies and sample size used in assessing the mood of the voters
• There is no guarantee that the voter opens all his/her cards when approached by a research team. In fact, some sections of the voters in UP are famous or rather notorious for not 'announcing' their votes till the last moment. And these sections of the society generally vote in mass for a particular candidate or party, when the polling takes place
• All the exit polls are heavily influenced by caste considerations and religious realty on the ground. What percent of Jatavs will vote for BSP or what percent of Baniyas have moved away from the BJP? These calculations are primarily based on some per-conceived notions that a certain caste or religion votes for a certain party. In today's time, when awareness, angst and anxiety amongst the voters is at its peak, it is very unwise to divide them in such watertight compartments. After all, at least some of the Muslims of Gujarat have voted for Narendra Modi all these years!
• And most importantly, Indian society is so diversified and fragmented that it is a near impossible task to accurately project the mood of the voters

It is precisely for these reasons that I am not a big fan of these exit polls. However, I must admit these projections do add the much-needed 'entertainment' quotient to the elections. '100 Hours of Non-Stop coverage' and other such catchy and emotive slogans by the channels ensure that the viewers are glued to their TV sets well before the results are actually announced. A brigade of analysts and experts debate over something that is still concealed in the future's womb! This, indeed, makes us madly fall in love with the biggest festival of Indian democracy.

So, why not let's have our own little exit poll just a few hours before the results are declared. Of course, I have not traveled to any of these states nor have I conducted any research on the mood of the electorates. But again, we do not who all (if any) have actually done it! Let's take it more as a 'prediction' exercise. After all, we the Indians, have always bet our lives on result of cricket matches or fate of a Bollywood film. Let's give elections a shot, this time around! (No pun intended)

U.P.- I do not see Samajwadi Party securing a thumping majority in UP elections. Yes, SP should emerge as the single largest party, but Congress should not do as bad as projected by most of the exit polls.

My Prediction for UP- (total seats 404)

• SP- 150-160
• BSP- 110-120
• BJP- 80-90
• Congress-RLD- 65-75 

UP is clearly heading for a hung house. I will bet my money on a SP-Congress govt or the President's rule for the state.

Uttarakhand-(total seats 70)

• BJP- 35-40
• Congress- 25-35

A tough call to make. But I will bet my money on BJP to cross the magic mark of 35 ahead of the Congress.

Punjab- (total seats 117)

• Congress- 50-60
• BJP-SAD- 40-50
• PPP- 0-5

Yet another tight finish, but I hope Congress to upstage SAD-BJP combine. Punjab has never voted for an incumbent government.

Manipur- (total seats 60)

• Congress- 30-35
• PDF-20-25
• TMC-10-15

Congress should retain power in Manipur. but, the ambitious PDF coalition may not fare as poorly as projected by exit polls.

Goa- (total seats 40)

• BJP- 20-30
• Congress-10-20

So, you have yet another exit poll to reflect upon. Obviously, it is the most unscientific exit poll ever but I am sure, it is not devoid of the entertainment value. And anyways, by tomorrow we all will know who got it right and who did not!

P.S.- The projections are solely on the basis of writer's own political understanding. The projection of seats for 'others' has been deliberately avoided as the writer finds them (others) very boring.

What happens when you vote wisely?

A Wind of Change is blowing. The results can now be seen on the ground.

1990s-

As a small kid, I used to ask my mother, ' Why do we sleep so early?' ‘It’s just 8'. She used to tell me that good people sleep early and wake up early. She herself slept an hour later to me and woke up, (ok, believe it or not) at 3 in the morning.

 Now, I look back and realize, there was nothing to keep us awake beyond 8. All the shops, markets started winding up by 6 in the evening and by 8 my town was patrolled by street dogs. The only sources of entertainment were DD National and Vividh Bharti. On fridays, I and my sisters used to plead mom & dad to let us watch the feature film on DD (The movie started at 9.30 in night). Obviously, it was the boldest and bravest adventure, we could afford to imagine.

Importantly, Electricity for us was like an ice cream. It used to melt away before we could savour it. Erratic power supply was sometimes followed by absolute power cut for days, even months. People said the Lalu Govt. was specifically targeting my town as it was 'Upper Caste' (Bhumihaars and Rajputs) dominated.

 2005-06:

On one of my trips to home, I met an elderly man whom my father admired a lot. Elderly people in my state have this tendency to quiz you, especially if you have a 'Delhi-returned' tag.

'Kya naam hai'? He asked me (In a typical Bhojpuri accent). ‘Ashish’, I replied. He was not amused. "Pura naam boliye". ‘Ashish Anant’, I tried my luck again. He was now satisfied and passed a smile. "Pitaji ka kya naam hai?” He very well knew my father, yet he wanted to hear his name from me. He was actually seeing whether I add "Shri" before papa's name or not, and whether I speak out his full name (My father has a long name) along with the surname. I passed the litmus test and the elderly man patted my back.

He continued, "Aap Dilli mein padhai Kar rahe hain." I nodded. "Baaki, yahaan bhi mahaul ab achcha hai. Dilli wali baat nahi hai, par Bihar badal gaya hai. uuu Dekhiye, pole par bijli hai, 20 ghanta rehti hai." I looked up at the pole. A bulb was glowing so magnificently that its luminance could be noticed even in the broad daylight. After exchanging pleasantries with the man, I continued towards my home.

That bright shining bulb is still fresh in my mind.

2010-11:

I do not know how one can measure happiness; I am not an economist or a sociologist for that matter. But during my trips to Bihar during the year 2010-11, I could feel a wave of happiness in the air. Driving towards my hometown, the RJ on Radio Mirchi Patna kept me informed about what all good things are happening in Bihar and how Patna has now properly transformed itself into a ‘city’. The first multiplex was already functioning, a mall was on its way, global leaders of taste like McDonald’s, KFC and Yo!China had opened their outlets and so on. In between, Mirchi played social service ads by Bihar Government. Clearly, something unusually ‘feel good’ was happening in my home state. I listened to all this while the driver ballooned the vehicle in and out of a web of flyovers.

I do not say that Radio Mirchi, KFC and flyovers are indicators of development. But yes, they are the agents of change. Agents of change for a state that sunk in abyss of misrule and anarchy for 15 long years. My female friends in Patna tell me that they are no more scared to go out on the streets after its dark. The bank of Ganges is now again buzzing with ferries and people who are on picnic. People are now less concerned about someone’s caste and surname. Education has become a priority and possibility even for the poorest of poor. And most importantly, there is no more a stigma attached to the term ‘Bihari’. My friends in Delhi do not tease me anymore for belonging to ‘Laluland’. Being a Bihari, now, gives me a sense of immense pride and satisfaction.

All of this has been possible as people of Bihar chose and persisted with a man who promised and delivered development. My state is a shining example of how vote can demolish or develop a state. Elections, after all, are not just about rallies and shouting slogans. There is a lot at stake.

 P.S.- The writer is a proud Bihari and has witnessed his state's meteoric rise in the recent years.