Manmohan is a Joke, Mamata a Joker

I write this with great empathy for an 80-year old economist who also happens to be the Prime Minister of India. Perhaps for the first time, I feel for Dr. Manmohan Singh and the continuous rebuff he is facing from his party and allies alike. Because all things said and done, Dr. Singh is our country's Prime Minister, the supposed all powerful man in the Indian democracy. The fact that his name was propped up as a probable Presidential candidate speaks a lot about the lack of trust his leadership is generating. He is no more even a lame-duck PM, he is crippled and perhaps amputated beyond repair and recovery.

The sheer audacity of Double Ms- Mamata and Mulayam to name Manmohan as a probable occupant of the Rashtrapati Bhawan, shows that these regional chieftains are fluttering their wings a bit too much. The move is a near endorsement of S&P's scathing attack on leadership qualities of the Prime Minister. There is a growing unease within the UPA ranks regarding Dr. Singh, and many believe that he is more of a liability than an asset for the government.

This move is unprecedented in truest sense of the word and much beyond that. A sitting PM has never been nominated as the President, although this seems to be an 'elevation' in profile, at least in the constitutional terms. Making Manmohan the president will be an admission of his failure as the Prime Minister, a surrender to the grim circumstances that stare this government in face. No doubt Manmohan Singh has proved to be an incapable premier, more so in his second term, there has been rampant corruption, ample mis-governance and lack of reforms in the economic sector. But, there is little doubt over the credibility and integrity of Dr. Singh himself. Yes, he is a weak Prime Minister but I can not imagine him indulging in wrongdoings, whatever Team Anna may say. So, if at all the Congress and the UPA thinks that time is up for Manmohan Singh, they should convey this clearly to him. Singh's phasing out has to be graceful and gradual, without any lollypop attached as 'compensation'.

Also, the post and authority of India's Prime Minister can not be undermined at any cost. Two regional cartoons can not be allowed to show the door to the PM, even if India is a multi-party democracy. It is the right of the people, and the single largest party/alliance to choose the Prime Minister. A couple of opportunistic leaders must not be allowed to humiliate the office at 7, Race Course Road. Embarrassment and defeat at the hands of nonsensical politics is the last thing that a sitting Prime Minister deserves. If Mamata and Mulayam are so fade up with the PM, what forces them to support his government? Do they have the courage to openly speak against the PM and the way he functions (or does not function). A gesture of this kind will strengthen a multi-party democracy, not the silly tactic of one upmanship.

Mulayam is a known gold digger. Dont be surprised if he changes sides tomorrow, in case he is offered a better bargain by the Congress. But what amazes me is the sheer lack of political sense that Mamata Banerjee is displaying. Right from the day of taking oath as the Bengal CM, Mamata has been behaving like a spoilt kid. Her opposition to almost every other UPA decision is bizzare, she is almost etching to ease out of the coalition. Sadly, she has done nothing worth mentioning as the Chief Minister. All the headlines she has received over the last one year has been because of her lunatic behavior, from calling students as 'Maoists' or pushing PM as the President. In the last 48 hours, she has made a joker out of herself and reduced Dr. Singh to a mere joke. Not only this, she has made Kalam a divisive figure, using his dignified name for her narrow gains. Mamata is in dire need of counseling. And Manmohan deserves a bit of pampering.

Political slug-fest is bound to happen in a multi-party democracy ahead of a crucial election, but the cheap theatrics involved in this drama has devalued the post of India's first citizen. Also, source -based reports of 'bargain', where Samajwadi Party may switch sides in return of a cabinet berth or relief from CBI probe, are appalling. One does not expect consensus on a candidate in the current Indian political situation. In fact a contest is what fuels a healthy democracy, and it is much more acceptable than 'Madam' Sonia simply sending her nominee to the Raisina Hill. But decency and civilized politicking is the least we can expect for, specially at a time when the nation is facing challenges at numerous fronts.

Too many backdoor meetings and deal crackings. Too many jokes and jokers around. Is it time India chose its President directly through people's voting?

To Rahul, With Rancor (Bura Na Mano Holi Hai)

Dear Rahul G,

Today is Holi. It is a festival of colors celebrated in India. India is a country, of which Uttar Pradesh is a state. Now, I am sure, this letter has caught your attention. UP is to you what red color is to a bull. Color again reminds me of Holi. And as the tradition goes, you must not mind the mud thrown at you on the occasion of this wonderful festival.

So, we can clearly see that you are red-faced. No, not because of the festival of colors but due to that hammering in the festival of democracy. I had warned you beforehand. Parachuting to a Dalit's house for picnic or cooking up stories at Bhatta Parsaul wont help your cause. (Read: To Rahul, With Rancor) I had also urged you to come out clean on your vision and ambition. What do you promise and offer to this country? What do you stand for? And, who are you at first place? But alas, you did not pay heed. (Read: To Rahul, With Rancor-2) You pay heed to nobody. You ignore media. Sorry, this time people ignored you. I wrote you two long letters! You know what it takes to blog? You know what it takes to blog about you? What Rahul G? I am sure even Parle-G would have paid heed after so much of effort. Ok, bad one. But again, it's Holi. I warned you.

I want to pay you some respect. Please don't mind. Respect for coming out from your shell, and owning up the responsibility for UP fiasco. And now, I take back that respect. For not turning up at your party's meet to discuss what went wrong. I know Congress is run from your mother's kitchen and you discuss your strategies with her at the dinner table, but still this is not done. This shows that you are an arrogant and a weak man. You can not look into adversity's eyes. You are far from ground realities. Your chopper is no match for Akhilesh's cycle. And you are not sympathetic and compassionate towards your own party members.

All throughout your campaign in UP, you faked aggression. You tore papers. People tore your party apart. You shouted against almost every political leader. The people shut you up. By now, you must have known that you are good at attracting crowd. You are a handsome Gandhi. People are bound to queue up to see you. But they will vote only for people they trust. And you failed to win people's trust.

To be honest, I also sympathize with you. You worked really hard to make a difference for your party. But you went horribly wrong in your calculations. You dreamed of forming government while your last tally was just 22. Your promises were lofty, far away and way high from the ground. Being a politician, how could you not read the writing on the wall? How could not you assess the ground realities, your party's actual prospects? Why did you continue to be ill-advised by a bunch of loud-mouth, moth-faced politicians? And the biggest sin of them all, how could you trust and entrust a joker like Digvijay Singh with so many responsibilities?

I pity you for being painted red this Holi. Hence, I made sure that I use coal black font color for writing this letter. I still wish you good luck for future. And I wish you and your family and your party a very happy Holi. Times change. Your day under the orange sun will come. Just make sure that you clean your face and heart properly after playing Holi.


With Rancor,

A Non-Congressman

The Most Unscientific Exit Poll Ever

As soon as the clock struck five on Saturday evening, all leading channels of the country embarked on a self-serving exercise of 'predicting' which party would come out victor in the assembly elections across 5 Indian states. Obviously, Uttar Pradesh got the biggest share of the pie while tiny Manipur was predictably ignored and isolated. I don't know what study and research goes behind these exercises but these exit polls have proved incorrect on most of the occasions, except when the outcomes were very much obvious. How can we forget the surprising results of 2004 general elections, when Congress romped home to majority, putting all pollsters and experts to shame. Exit polls have been proved wrong in States like Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, where Mayawati and Jayalalitha secured full majority, despite not being touted to do so. So, I would not be surprised, and in fact would be very delighted, if the electorates triumph over the exit polls yet again.

I have my reasons to not believe these exit polls-

• No channel/ media house comes out with the methodologies and sample size used in assessing the mood of the voters
• There is no guarantee that the voter opens all his/her cards when approached by a research team. In fact, some sections of the voters in UP are famous or rather notorious for not 'announcing' their votes till the last moment. And these sections of the society generally vote in mass for a particular candidate or party, when the polling takes place
• All the exit polls are heavily influenced by caste considerations and religious realty on the ground. What percent of Jatavs will vote for BSP or what percent of Baniyas have moved away from the BJP? These calculations are primarily based on some per-conceived notions that a certain caste or religion votes for a certain party. In today's time, when awareness, angst and anxiety amongst the voters is at its peak, it is very unwise to divide them in such watertight compartments. After all, at least some of the Muslims of Gujarat have voted for Narendra Modi all these years!
• And most importantly, Indian society is so diversified and fragmented that it is a near impossible task to accurately project the mood of the voters

It is precisely for these reasons that I am not a big fan of these exit polls. However, I must admit these projections do add the much-needed 'entertainment' quotient to the elections. '100 Hours of Non-Stop coverage' and other such catchy and emotive slogans by the channels ensure that the viewers are glued to their TV sets well before the results are actually announced. A brigade of analysts and experts debate over something that is still concealed in the future's womb! This, indeed, makes us madly fall in love with the biggest festival of Indian democracy.

So, why not let's have our own little exit poll just a few hours before the results are declared. Of course, I have not traveled to any of these states nor have I conducted any research on the mood of the electorates. But again, we do not who all (if any) have actually done it! Let's take it more as a 'prediction' exercise. After all, we the Indians, have always bet our lives on result of cricket matches or fate of a Bollywood film. Let's give elections a shot, this time around! (No pun intended)

U.P.- I do not see Samajwadi Party securing a thumping majority in UP elections. Yes, SP should emerge as the single largest party, but Congress should not do as bad as projected by most of the exit polls.

My Prediction for UP- (total seats 404)

• SP- 150-160
• BSP- 110-120
• BJP- 80-90
• Congress-RLD- 65-75 

UP is clearly heading for a hung house. I will bet my money on a SP-Congress govt or the President's rule for the state.

Uttarakhand-(total seats 70)

• BJP- 35-40
• Congress- 25-35

A tough call to make. But I will bet my money on BJP to cross the magic mark of 35 ahead of the Congress.

Punjab- (total seats 117)

• Congress- 50-60
• BJP-SAD- 40-50
• PPP- 0-5

Yet another tight finish, but I hope Congress to upstage SAD-BJP combine. Punjab has never voted for an incumbent government.

Manipur- (total seats 60)

• Congress- 30-35
• PDF-20-25
• TMC-10-15

Congress should retain power in Manipur. but, the ambitious PDF coalition may not fare as poorly as projected by exit polls.

Goa- (total seats 40)

• BJP- 20-30
• Congress-10-20

So, you have yet another exit poll to reflect upon. Obviously, it is the most unscientific exit poll ever but I am sure, it is not devoid of the entertainment value. And anyways, by tomorrow we all will know who got it right and who did not!

P.S.- The projections are solely on the basis of writer's own political understanding. The projection of seats for 'others' has been deliberately avoided as the writer finds them (others) very boring.

To Rahul, With Rancor- 2

Dear Rahul,

Hope you are doing good. Let me make it very clear, I have no intention of bugging you with letters. But, somehow you, and your politics always seem to occupy my mind (do not doubt my orientations). After all, you are supposed to represent the changing face of Indian politics, and the young, vibrant population of the country, in general. I don't know who appointed you as the representative/ face/ brand ambassador of everything young that this country has. But now that the onus is on you, I can not help but address this letter (second in six months) to you.

First, I wish you all the best for UP assembly elections due next year. I can sense your excitement, there is spring in your feet and your speech has fine balance of vitriol and wisdom. Your excitement reminds me of my school days. Biology used to be my favorite subject, and gleefully I used to wait for its exam to come. Similarly, UP seems to be your favorite political subject and hence the evident  augmentation is quite justified. I sincerely hope that you manage to show a good report card to your mumma.

Second, I am impressed from the fact that you kick-started UP election campaign from your great grandfather's constituency. It seems that rough political weather in Delhi has sharpened your wisdom, at least in the case of Uttar Pradesh. But apart from symbolism attached with Nehru's Phoolpur, what else the voter should expect from you? Are you willing to push Nehruvian Model in today's times? What is your stand on India's foreign and economic policy? Sadly, you never touch upon these areas. You only seem to be interested in rhetoric, matching Mayawati word to word. I mean, you must realize that 'beggar comment' was in bad taste. So far it is only rhetoric, I pray to God that you do not try and match Maya's theatrics!

And lastly, why don't you try and break that logjam in parliament? Why are you not ready to take up that extra mile? Why is your every move calculated like a family's monthly budget and measured like a cricket pitch? What is stopping you from taking up a larger role in party functioning or even a smaller role in governance? Do you know Kalawati, the Dalit woman who rose into national limelight thanks to you, is finding it tough to have two meals a day? Do you know there are millions of Kalawatis across India who are reeling under unprecedented inflation? And do you know youth of this nation is finding it tough to ride a bike, the vehicle you used to 'appear' in Bhatta Parsaul, because of the rising petrol price?

I think you know all of this. I am sure you have a cable connection at home. I am sure your party men, friends and family keep you informed on issues concerning India. Then , what makes you so unresponsive to matters of national significance? Why only Uttar Pradesh has Viagra like effect on you? And even after being so excited about UP, you do not project yourself as the Congress Chief Ministerial candidate. What's the harm in taking the plunge? Or do you also foolishly think, like some of your party men, that you are tailor-made only for the PM's post?

Ok, listen. I do not like asking all these clumsy questions again and again. But your actions are so infertile and supine that I can not help but write these letters to you. I mean, please do something. Match your words with action. Get your dreams right. Set your goals straight. Get rid of those classical myths. Go, reform Indian politics. I am sure you can do much better. Much better than watching Chirag Paswan's debut film.

With Rancor,

A Non-Congressman


*********************

P.S.- I know you do not follow my blog. There are chances that you may never read these letters. But, still I have a belief that someday we will meet and discuss these letters over a cup of coffee.

Click below to read the first letter-

http://aashishanant.blogspot.com/2011/05/to-rahul-with-rancor.html

Advani’s Last Throw of the Dice

Political Commentary

India’s eternal Prime Minister-in-waiting, BJP’s old warhorse L.K. Advani, is all set to embark on yet another Rath Yatra. His latest Yatra bandwagon aspires to ride on the popular public resentment against corruption. Taking a leaf out of veteran social activist Anna Hazare’s book, Advani will travel across the country to express his solidarity with the anti-corruption sentiment that is sweeping the nation.

Advani’s desire to reside in 7, Race Course Road is an open secret. After being snubbed by Indian voters in 2009, most pundits expected him to silently walk into the sunset. However, despite relinquishing the post of Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Advani could not really keep himself away from active politics. Hence, the proposed Yatra seems to be an effort on Advani’s part to assert his ‘leadership’ in the party, specially when BJP is struggling to find a credible leader out of a host of ‘wannabes’.

Advani’s sudden announcement of the anti-corruption Rath Yatra has surprised political experts, his own party and the ruling congress. The move is also being seen as a last-ditch effort by the octogenarian leader to stake his claim to BJP Prime Ministerial Candidature in the 2014 General Elections. Advani’s decision to embark on a Yatra has reportedly not gone down well with BJP’s Gen Next leaders. Officially though BJP has voiced full support to the veteran’s Yatra, calling him party’s ‘tallest’ leader. However, Advani, being a seasoned politician, has kept his cards close to the chest by not ruling himself out of the PM race so far.

It will also be interesting to see how Advani justifies this Yatra specially after some BJP leaders themselves are reeling under allegation of corruption of great magnitudes. From Ramesh Pokhriyal in North to Yedduirappa in South, BJP woes seem to compounding with each passing day. The motives behind the Yatra will surely be intriguing for the common man, who seems to have developed a bitter taste for anything political these days.

The Congress Party has expectedly slammed Advani’s proposed Yatra, reminding him that the nation is yet to come out of the repercussions of his first Yatra. However, at this stage of his political career, Advani is not really expected to arouse sentiments similar to Rath Yatra on Ayodhya Issue.

Whatever be the eventual outcome of his Yatra, Adavni has at least managed to hog limelight in this ongoing anti-corruption campaign. The BJP will both keep an eye on Advani’s moves and expect to reap dividends out of this latest crusade against corruption. Party feels that its own anti-corruption movement against the government has lost steam after Anna Hazare and his team took over the stage. Hence, Advani’s Yatra may revive BJP’s own anti-corruption agenda and give it a much-needed ‘face’ to take on the government. After all, Advani’s personal integrity is untainted and he still commands lot of respect among the BJP cadres.

However, despite the prospects of gaining some political mileage out of the Yatra, BJP is worried about an impending ‘leadership’ struggle within the party. Now after Narendra Modi has been given a breather by the Supreme Court in the Riots Case, the race for BJP’s Prime Ministerial Candidate has gained further momentum. So, BJP’s immediate goal is to piggyback on Advani’s Yatra politics, wrest back the anti-corruption campaign from Team Anna and put forward a united face in front of the nation.

Advani finds himself at crossroads of a long-cherished dream, political realities and fortunes of a party that he meticulously built along with others like Vajpayee. His true motive behind taking up yet another Yatra may never be known but India will be keenly watching the outcome of what seems to be the Veteran Leader’s last throw of the dice. 

To Rahul, With Rancor

Dear Rahul,

You troubled me a lot last week by shamelessly occupying news space, my staple diet, for a reason, which I found hard to comprehend. You must understand that you are to politics what Ranbir Kapoor is to Hindi Film Industry. You are media’s favorite pin-up boy, single and available for marriage and also prime ministership, (in your case). But that does not give you the liberty to poke your nose in each and every affair of this country. Ranbir can get away with fooling around every now and then, but sorry you are not so lucky. The same people who hail you as the Next King of India would banish you to death if a single step goes wrong.

Firstly, who are you? What is your qualification and distinction? Why shall I trust you when you say that women have been raped and there is a mass grave in Bhatta Parsaul? Do you have any substantial evidence to back your serious charges? The answer is in negative and your flip-flop post that overzealous statement is a testimony to this fact. I will not, and no Indian should, trust you blindly just because you carry that illustrious surname. You have achieved little in your life other than that scion tag and your theatrics seem to be mere eyewash.

You have a fetish for rural India and poor milieu. When you get bored, swimming in the political waters of Delhi, you swiftly retreat to a untouchable’s house in some non-descript hamlet, shake hands with villagers, carry mud on your head and spend a night there. What difference does this trip of yours make in the lives of those poor villagers? They only find themselves in the news headlines along with you.

Why is it that you take up farmers’ issues only in the states that are not ruled by your party? Is the UP land agitation the only of its kind in India? Where were you when farmers were shot at in Jaitapur, Maharashtra and in Andhra Pradesh? You don’t bother to go there just because these are congress-ruled states. You have one-point agenda in your mind: To strengthen Congress’ base in states where its clout has eroded. Nothing wrong with that, its your duty as the party’s youth leader and General secretary. But why do you 'fake' issues? Why are you hell bent on playing politics over dead farmers in UP? Why have you exaggerated the issue and made Mayawati look like Muammar Gadaffi? Rahul, you have misled the already 'lost Prime Minister' of this country, and the ignorant Indians at large.

I applauded when you took that Bombay local to defy goon politics of Shiv Sena. I liked the way you raised the issue of Kalavati in the Parliament. But you seem to have lost plot here. You are behaving like an  ill-informed kid who is dying to get his share of lolly. Truth and honesty, which made you distinct in initial stages of your political career, have deserted you. But let me remind you, Uttar Pradesh wont be reclaimed by these 'one-day retreat' dramas of yours. Mayawati is no saint. But you are no God either.

With Rancor,

A Non-Congressman